Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Bournemouth vs Everton Bournemouth vs Everton

BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

0-3-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 10:00 AM ET
Vitality Stadium

EVERTONEVERTON

2-3-0  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
BOURNEMOUTH
35%
DRAW
31%
EVERTON
35%
▲ Edge: +20.50% (Everton)
45% Book Odds: +122
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +253
30% Book Odds: +239
Book Implied: 45% / 28.30% / 29.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 49%
Under 2.75 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
EVERTON
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Everton)
BournemouthBournemouth (-0.2) 0 EvertonEverton (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.5% / 41.5%

Shots (On Goal)

17(5) / 13(7)

Corners

10 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Everton 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Everton)

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

21.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

15.9%

Everton By 1 goal

21.1%

Everton By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.50
1
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.50
1
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Win
44% Win Prob
B
Sim AFC Bournemouth Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Everton (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim AFC Bournemouth (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 Bournemouth vs Everton 1 - 1
Feb 10, 2026 Everton vs Bournemouth 1 - 2
Dec 2, 2025 Bournemouth vs Everton 0 - 1
Jan 4, 2025 Bournemouth vs Everton 1 - 0
Aug 31, 2024 Everton vs Bournemouth 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Everton: 3.0 vs Bournemouth: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Everton: 1.0 vs Bournemouth: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +83.3% more
Everton: 11.0 vs Bournemouth: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +60.0% more
Everton: 5.0 vs Bournemouth: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Everton Score 1.0 1
AFC Bournemouth Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
AFC Bournemouth (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AFC Bournemouth Share: 50.0% Everton Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFC Bournemouth
Everton
AFC Bournemouth
Everton
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
ATS
88% 3-0-1
89% 4-0
38% 1-2-1
33% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.