Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Liverpool vs Nottm Forest Liverpool vs Nottm Forest

LIVERPOOLLIVERPOOL

0-2-0  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:30 AM ET
Anfield

NOTTM FORESTNOTTM FOREST

0-1-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
LIVERPOOL
61%
DRAW
21%
NOTTM FOREST
18%
▲ Edge: +25.30% (Nottingham Forest)
68% Book Odds: -209
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +395
15% Book Odds: +575
Book Implied: 67.60% / 20.20% / 14.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 52%
Under 3.0 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
NOTTM FOREST
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Nottm Forest)
LiverpoolLiverpool (-1.2) 0 Nottm ForestNottm Forest (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

69.6% / 30.4%

Shots (On Goal)

13(4) / 12(3)

Corners

3 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Nottingham Forest +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Nottingham Forest)

Liverpool By 1 goal

26.1%

Liverpool By 2+ goals

36.9%

Nottingham Forest By 1 goal

11.1%

Nottingham Forest By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 2.10
1
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 2.10
0
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Liverpool Loss
60% Win Prob
A
Sim Liverpool Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nottingham Forest (+1.25) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Liverpool (-1.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 Liverpool vs Nottm Forest 2 - 2
Feb 22, 2026 Nottm Forest vs Liverpool 0 - 1
Nov 22, 2025 Liverpool vs Nottm Forest 0 - 3
Jan 14, 2025 Nottm Forest vs Liverpool 1 - 1
Sep 14, 2024 Liverpool vs Nottm Forest 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Liverpool: 2.0 vs Nottm Forest: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +60.0% more
Liverpool: 8.0 vs Nottm Forest: 5.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Nottm Forest: 2.0 vs Liverpool: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +80.0% more
Nottm Forest: 5.0 vs Liverpool: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Nottingham Forest Score 1.0 2
Liverpool Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Liverpool (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Liverpool Share: 66.7% Nottingham Forest Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
ML
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
ATS
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
TTL
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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