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SANTOSSANTOS

3-1-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Corona

TIGRESTIGRES

2-4-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SANTOS
35%
DRAW
31%
TIGRES
35%
▲ Edge: +27.60% (Santos)
22% Book Odds: +347
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +299
56% Book Odds: -128
Book Implied: 22.40% / 25.10% / 56.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 50%
Under 2.75 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Santos)
SantosSantos (+0.8) 0 TigresTigres (-0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

59.1% / 40.9%

Shots (On Goal)

20(4) / 15(2)

Corners

12 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Santos 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Santos By 1 goal

21.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

15.9%

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

21.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
46% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigres UANL Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Santos (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Tigres UANL (+0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 Santos vs Tigres 0 - 0
Feb 6, 2026 Tigres vs Santos 5 - 1
Aug 30, 2025 Santos vs Tigres 0 - 1
Mar 15, 2025 Tigres vs Santos 3 - 0
Jul 20, 2024 Santos vs Tigres 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Tigres: 2.0 vs Santos: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs Santos: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +133.3% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Santos: 7.0
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Santos: 5.0 vs Tigres: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tigres UANL Score 1.0 0
Santos Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Santos (Home) vs Tigres UANL (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Santos Share: 50.0% Tigres UANL Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Santos
Tigres UANL
Santos
Tigres UANL
ML
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
70% 7-3
10% 1-9
ATS
44% 4-5-1
72% 6-2-1
67% 6-3-1
29% 2-6-1
TTL
68% 6-3
30% 3-7
47% 4-5
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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