Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / América vs Puebla América vs Puebla

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-2-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 9:05 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-2-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
78%
DRAW
13%
PUEBLA
9%
▲ Edge: +14.60% (Puebla)
62% Book Odds: -161
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +324
19% Book Odds: +442
Book Implied: 61.70% / 23.60% / 18.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 61%
Under 2.75 39%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-2.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
-1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (América)
AméricaAmérica (-1) 0 PueblaPuebla (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.6% / 46.4%

Shots (On Goal)

20(6) / 23(6)

Corners

3 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around América -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

América By 1 goal

21.1%

América By 2+ goals

63.1%

Puebla By 1 goal

3.8%

Puebla By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.90
0
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI América Win
67% Win Prob
A
Sim América Win
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI América (-1) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Sim América (-1) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 América vs Puebla 2 - 0
Feb 20, 2026 Puebla vs América 0 - 4
Oct 21, 2025 América vs Puebla 2 - 1
Feb 7, 2025 Puebla vs América 1 - 2
Aug 24, 2024 América vs Puebla 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +400.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Puebla: 10.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
América: 0.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
América: 1.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
América: 3.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.0 0
América Score 3.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
América (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
América Share: 75.0% Puebla Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Puebla
América
Puebla
ML
67% 6-3
50% 5-5
78% 7-2
50% 5-5
ATS
50% 4-4-1
62% 5-3-2
100% 7-0-2
64% 4-2-3
TTL
56% 5-4
44% 4-5-1
78% 7-2
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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