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PACHUCAPACHUCA

4-4-6  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Hidalgo

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

7-5-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
PACHUCA
35%
DRAW
31%
GUADALAJARA
35%
▲ Edge: +5% (Guadalajara)
31% Book Odds: +226
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +263
45% Book Odds: +122
Book Implied: 30.70% / 27.50% / 45%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 49%
Under 2.75 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
PACHUCA
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Pachuca)
PachucaPachuca (+0.2) 0 GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.0% / 57.0%

Shots (On Goal)

17(7) / 12(5)

Corners

8 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Pachuca 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pachuca)

Pachuca By 1 goal

21.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

15.9%

Guadalajara By 1 goal

21.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.20
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Guadalajara Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pachuca (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Guadalajara (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 Pachuca vs Guadalajara 1 - 1
Jan 16, 2022 Pachuca vs Guadalajara 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs Pachuca: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 1.0 vs Pachuca: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +80.0% more
Guadalajara: 5.0 vs Pachuca: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Guadalajara: 9.0 vs Pachuca: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Guadalajara Score 1.0 1
Pachuca Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Pachuca (Home) vs Guadalajara (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pachuca Share: 50.0% Guadalajara Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pachuca
Guadalajara
Pachuca
Guadalajara
ML
29% 4-10
50% 7-7
31% 4-9
50% 7-7
ATS
72% 9-3-1
82% 9-2-3
25% 3-9-1
45% 5-6-3
TTL
55% 6-5-3
81% 10-2-1
30% 3-7-3
46% 6-7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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