Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlas vs Queretaro Atlas vs Queretaro

ATLASATLAS

5-2-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Jalisco

QUERETAROQUERETARO

5-2-2  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
ATLAS
61%
DRAW
21%
QUERETARO
18%
▲ Edge: +25.60% (Querétaro)
46% Book Odds: +117
DRAW 30% Book Odds: +229
27% Book Odds: +271
Book Implied: 46.10% / 30.40% / 27%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 51%
Under 2.5 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Atlas)
AtlasAtlas (-0.2) 0 QueretaroQueretaro (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.6% / 41.4%

Shots (On Goal)

14(3) / 12(5)

Corners

6 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

0/1 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Atlas By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

36.9%

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.40
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.40
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlas Loss
47% Win Prob
C
Sim Atlas Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlas (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Atlas (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 Atlas vs Queretaro 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 Atlas vs Queretaro 0 - 0
Aug 17, 2025 Queretaro vs Atlas 3 - 3
Apr 16, 2025 Queretaro vs Atlas 1 - 2
Sep 20, 2024 Atlas vs Queretaro 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Atlas: 3.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +250.0% more
Atlas: 7.0 vs Queretaro: 2.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Atlas: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Atlas: 7.0 vs Queretaro: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Querétaro Score 1.0 3
Atlas Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Atlas (Home) vs Querétaro (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlas Share: 66.7% Querétaro Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlas
Querétaro
Atlas
Querétaro
ML
60% 6-4
22% 2-7
40% 4-6
22% 2-7
ATS
47% 4-5
71% 5-2-2
42% 4-5
25% 2-6-1
TTL
80% 8-2
62% 5-3-1
50% 5-5
50% 4-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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