Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Dodgers STL @ LAD

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

70-70  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Sep 2 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

82-57  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brock Stewart
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Stewart

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 3.88 -- 1.0 1
Brock Stewart None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.88 ERA Ldr 2.70
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
40%
📊
DODGERS
60%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (STL)
CARDINALS 32% Book Odds: +214
DODGERS 70% Book Odds: -237
Book Implied: 31.80% / 70.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (+1.5) 0 DodgersLAD (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

64.6%

Dodgers Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 STL @ LAD 2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026 STL @ LAD 8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 STL @ LAD 13 - 8
May 3, 2026 LAD @ STL 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 LAD @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Los Angeles LAD
143 ▲
Games Played
141
4.52
Runs / Game
▲ 4.91
.243
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .336
.386
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .420
.702
OPS
▲ .756
153
Home Runs
▲ 172
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +12.4% more
Los Angeles: 172.0 vs St. Louis: 153.0
Runs per Game (Season) +8.6% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs St. Louis: 4.5
OPS (Season) +5.4%
Los Angeles: 75.6% vs St. Louis: 70.2%
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.4%
Los Angeles: 42.0% vs St. Louis: 38.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.5 8
LAD Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 9.4 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 2.2 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.5 9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 17.1 20.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.8 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +141 / -171 → +214 / -237 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
10%TICKETS90%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
71-72-0 (49.7%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
85-57-0 (59.9%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(54.6%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
63-72-8
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
65-75-2
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
STL
LAD
STL
ML
53% 75-66
51% 72-68
47% 67-75
49% 69-73
ATS
60% 85-56
56% 79-61
48% 68-74
49% 70-72
TTL
49% 68-71-2
45% 58-72-10
87% 122-19-1
84% 117-23-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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