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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

71-69  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Sep 2 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

62-78  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Eury Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Eury Perez

#39 | SP
@
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eury Perez 7-10 3.44 1.13 130.2 142
Noah Cameron 9-8 3.98 1.22 149.1 131
7-10 W-L 9-8
3.44 Ldr ERA 3.98
1.13 Ldr WHIP 1.22
130.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 149.1
142 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 131
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
📊
ROYALS
60%
▲ Edge: +8.20% (KC)
MARLINS 50% Book Odds: -101
ROYALS 52% Book Odds: -107
Book Implied: 50.20% / 51.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 50%
Under 9.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Royals Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
6
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Marlins Win
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Marlins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 MIA @ KC 3 - 7
Sep 2, 2026 MIA @ KC 9 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 MIA @ KC 6 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 KC @ MIA 7 - 4
Jul 19, 2025 KC @ MIA 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Kansas City KC
142
Games Played
142
4.34 ▲
Runs / Game
4.28
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .248
.325 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.398
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.723 ▲
OPS
.719
144
Home Runs
▲ 148
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +8.8% more
Kansas City: 13.2 vs Miami: 12.1
Hits (L5) +8.5% more
Kansas City: 8.4 vs Miami: 7.7
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.5%
Kansas City: 40.3% vs Miami: 39.8%
Errors (L5) +45.2% more
Miami: 1.0 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 9
KC Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.7 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 8.9 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 12.1 20.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.8 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → -101 / -107 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
71-71-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
63-79-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(49.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(48.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
69-69-4
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
66-72-4
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIA
KC
MIA
ML
55% 78-63
49% 69-73
55% 77-63
53% 74-66
ATS
57% 81-60
58% 83-59
55% 77-63
51% 72-68
TTL
58% 78-57-6
53% 73-65-4
85% 116-21-3
83% 116-23-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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