DETROIT
TIGERSDET
64-75 | Road
11
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
67-73 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Anderson
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dean Kremer
#13 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Anderson | 4-5 | 3.87 | 1.33 | 86.0 | 96 |
| Dean Kremer | 2-5 | 5.60 | 1.26 | 62.2 | 61 |
4-5
W-L
2-5
3.87 Ldr
ERA
5.60
1.33
WHIP
Ldr 1.26
86.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
62.2
96 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
61
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
55%
TWINS
45%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (DET)
TIGERS
50%
Book Odds: +100
TWINS
52%
Book Odds: -108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
5.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
MIN @ DET
2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
MIN @ DET
3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
MIN @ DET
4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026
DET @ MIN
11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
DET @ MIN
2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.720
OPS
.720
181
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+54.9% more
Detroit: 1.0
vs
Minnesota: 0.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
Home Runs (L5)
+208.0% more
Minnesota: 2.4
vs
Detroit: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+150.5% more
Minnesota: 20.0
vs
Detroit: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
5.2
11
MIN Score
3.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.0 / 5.7
9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 7.0
14.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
20.0 / 8.0
11.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.9
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100
→
+100 / -108
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
52%
84-78
54%
86-73
50%
80-81
54%
87-73
ATS
59%
95-67
64%
101-58
59%
95-66
57%
91-69
TTL
51%
78-75-9
46%
69-81-9
53%
80-72-9
46%
69-81-10
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