SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
58-82 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
68-72 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp | 8-13 | 4.25 | 1.31 | 139.2 | 133 |
| Jared Jones | 2-6 | 4.83 | 1.28 | 72.2 | 83 |
8-13
W-L
2-6
4.25 Ldr
ERA
4.83
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.28
139.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
72.2
133 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
83
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
51%
PIRATES
49%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (SF)
GIANTS
43%
Book Odds: +134
PIRATES
59%
Book Odds: -145
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5
60%
Under 8.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
SF @ PIT
2 - 5
Sep 2, 2026
SF @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 1, 2026
SF @ PIT
12 - 13
May 10, 2026
PIT @ SF
6 - 7
May 9, 2026
PIT @ SF
13 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.706
OPS
▲
.734
178
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+20.8% more
San Francisco: 1.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+17.9% more
San Francisco: 4.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+14.5% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Hits (L5)
+8.9% more
Pittsburgh: 11.5
vs
San Francisco: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.5
5
PIT Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.5 / 10.6
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.3
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 17.1
11.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.3
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163
→
+134 / -145
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
SF
PIT
SF
ML
52%
82-77
49%
79-81
52%
85-78
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
86-73
62%
100-60
50%
81-82
52%
83-77
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
82-68-10
50%
79-78-6
46%
68-81-11
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