SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
66-74 | Road
8
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
75-65 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Miller
#50 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | 4-8 | 4.12 | 1.09 | 94.0 | 92 |
| Patrick Sandoval | 1-3 | 4.20 | 1.71 | 45.0 | 48 |
4-8
W-L
1-3
4.12 Ldr
ERA
4.20
1.09 Ldr
WHIP
1.71
94.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
45.0
92 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
48
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
45%
RED SOX
55%
MARINERS
47%
Book Odds: +114
RED SOX
58%
Book Odds: -137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
3.8
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 3
Sep 1, 2026
SEA @ BOS
9 - 6
Aug 31, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 9
Jun 21, 2026
BOS @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
BOS @ SEA
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.693
▲
OPS
.409
182
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+75.6% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+28.4%
Seattle: 69.3%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Home Runs (L5)
+24.7% more
Seattle: 1.8
vs
Boston: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
3.8
8
BOS Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 8.9
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.5
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 16.9
20.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.8
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
+114 / -137
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SEA
BOS
SEA
ML
50%
80-80
50%
81-81
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
98-64
48%
79-84
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
72-83-5
56%
85-67-10
47%
74-83-6
53%
81-71-10
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