BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
69-71 | Road
5
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
54-86 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Tomoyuki Sugano
#11 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 9-9 | 4.38 | 1.25 | 137.2 | 121 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 12-8 | 5.23 | 1.36 | 125.2 | 75 |
9-9
W-L
12-8
4.38 Ldr
ERA
5.23
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
137.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
125.2
121 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
75
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
72%
ROCKIES
28%
▲ Edge: +9.90% (BAL)
ORIOLES
63%
Book Odds: -167
ROCKIES
42%
Book Odds: +138
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
11.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 11.5
46%
Under 11.5
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.50
Colorado
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.50
Colorado
7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Loss
72% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u11.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
BAL @ COL
5 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
BAL @ COL
2 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
BAL @ COL
2 - 1
Jul 27, 2025
COL @ BAL
1 - 5
Jul 26, 2025
COL @ BAL
0 - 18
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Colorado
COL
142
▲
Games Played
141
4.51
Runs / Game
▲
4.69
.235
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.711
OPS
▲
.740
172
▲
Home Runs
156
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.1% more
Baltimore: 8.4
vs
Colorado: 6.5
Home Runs (Season)
+9.3% more
Baltimore: 172.0
vs
Colorado: 156.0
Hits (L5)
+34.1% more
Colorado: 8.8
vs
Baltimore: 6.6
Walks (L5)
+32.0% more
Colorado: 4.2
vs
Baltimore: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
6.0
5
COL Score
4.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.6
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 8.4
7.0 / 17.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.5
19.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118
→
-167 / +138
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
69-73-0
(48.6%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
54-87-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(51.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(53.9%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
70-68-4
O: 50.7% / U: 49.3%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
66-72-3
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
BAL
COL
BAL
ML
57%
80-60
53%
74-65
51%
72-68
57%
81-60
ATS
60%
84-56
62%
85-53-1
50%
70-70
56%
79-62
TTL
57%
78-59-3
53%
71-63-5
85%
119-21
86%
119-20-2
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