Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Rockies BAL @ COL

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

69-71  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Sep 2 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

54-86  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Rogers

#28 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tomoyuki Sugano
STARTING PITCHER

Tomoyuki Sugano

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Rogers 9-9 4.38 1.25 137.2 121
Tomoyuki Sugano 12-8 5.23 1.36 125.2 75
9-9 W-L 12-8
4.38 Ldr ERA 5.23
1.25 Ldr WHIP 1.36
137.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 125.2
121 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 75
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
72%
📊
ROCKIES
28%
▲ Edge: +9.90% (BAL)
ORIOLES 63% Book Odds: -167
ROCKIES 42% Book Odds: +138
Book Implied: 62.50% / 42%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
11.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 11.5 46%
Under 11.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

35.4%

Rockies Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.50
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.50
7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles Loss
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 BAL @ COL 5 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 BAL @ COL 2 - 4
Aug 31, 2026 BAL @ COL 2 - 1
Jul 27, 2025 COL @ BAL 1 - 5
Jul 26, 2025 COL @ BAL 0 - 18
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Colorado COL
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.711
OPS
▲ .739
199 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +23.1% more
Baltimore: 8.4 vs Colorado: 6.5
Home Runs (Season) +9.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Hits (L5) +34.1% more
Colorado: 8.8 vs Baltimore: 6.6
Walks (L5) +32.0% more
Colorado: 4.2 vs Baltimore: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 6.0 5
COL Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 6.6 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 8.4 7.0 / 17.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 11.5 19.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118 → -167 / +138 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
73%TICKETS27%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: 11 → 11.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
BAL
COL
BAL
ML
60% 97-64
53% 83-73
55% 88-73
57% 90-69
ATS
60% 97-64
61% 95-60-1
52% 83-78
57% 90-68-1
TTL
60% 93-62-6
54% 81-70-5
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 47 minutes ago
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
headtopics 20 hours, 11 minutes ago
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 14 hours ago
Padres and Brewers: A Friendly Rivalry Rooted in Shared History
headtopics 1 day, 20 hours ago