ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
54-86 | Road
9
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
69-71 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Cody Bradford
#61 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | 5-4 | 4.82 | 1.46 | 99.0 | 96 |
| Cody Bradford | 0-3 | 3.42 | 1.52 | 26.1 | 13 |
5-4
W-L
0-3
4.82
ERA
Ldr 3.42
1.46 Ldr
WHIP
1.52
99.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
26.1
96 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
13
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
29%
RANGERS
71%
▲ Edge: +8.50% (TEX)
ATHLETICS
42%
Book Odds: +137
RANGERS
63%
Book Odds: -167
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
60%
Under 7.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Texas
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rangers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATH @ TEX
9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
ATH @ TEX
5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026
ATH @ TEX
1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026
TEX @ ATH
2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
TEX @ ATH
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Texas
TEX
142
Games Played
142
4.40
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.248
▲
Avg (AVG)
.243
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.406
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.399
.727
▲
OPS
.716
172
▲
Home Runs
160
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+33.1% more
Texas: 15.6
vs
Athletics: 11.8
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Texas: 0.7
vs
Athletics: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Texas: 1.0
vs
Athletics: 0.7
Hits (L5)
+12.3% more
Texas: 9.6
vs
Athletics: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.8
9
TEX Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 8.6
8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
2.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.5
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 11.8
14.0 / 32.0
Walks
3.1 / 5.0
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +163 / -199
→
+137 / -167
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
57-86-0
(39.9%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
70-73-0
(48.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
(46.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
73-66-4
O: 52.5% / U: 47.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TEX
71-64-8
O: 52.6% / U: 47.4%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATH
TEX
ATH
ML
52%
75-68
57%
82-61
58%
82-60
54%
77-65
ATS
57%
81-62
51%
73-70
56%
79-63
50%
71-71
TTL
51%
67-65-11
56%
78-61-4
86%
119-20-3
86%
120-20-2
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