Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Rangers ATH @ TEX

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

54-86  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Sep 2 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

69-71  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Lopez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cody Bradford
STARTING PITCHER

Cody Bradford

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Lopez 5-4 4.82 1.46 99.0 96
Cody Bradford 0-3 3.42 1.52 26.1 13
5-4 W-L 0-3
4.82 ERA Ldr 3.42
1.46 Ldr WHIP 1.52
99.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 26.1
96 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 13
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
29%
📊
RANGERS
71%
▲ Edge: +8.50% (TEX)
ATHLETICS 42% Book Odds: +137
RANGERS 63% Book Odds: -167
Book Implied: 42.20% / 62.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 60%
Under 7.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

63.7%

Rangers Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Rangers Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATH @ TEX 9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 ATH @ TEX 5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026 ATH @ TEX 1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026 TEX @ ATH 2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 TEX @ ATH 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719 ▲
OPS
.713
194 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +33.1% more
Texas: 15.6 vs Athletics: 11.8
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Texas: 0.7 vs Athletics: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +32.0% more
Texas: 1.0 vs Athletics: 0.7
Hits (L5) +12.3% more
Texas: 9.6 vs Athletics: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.8 9
TEX Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.6 / 8.6 8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 2.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 8.5 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 11.8 14.0 / 32.0
Walks 3.1 / 5.0 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +163 / -199 → +137 / -167 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
30%TICKETS70%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
91%TICKETS9%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATH
TEX
ATH
ML
53% 86-76
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 92-70
52% 84-78
61% 98-63
50% 81-80
TTL
53% 78-70-14
54% 84-73-5
55% 81-66-14
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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