ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
83-57 | Road
9
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
67-75 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Kent
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | 9-5 | 3.71 | 1.34 | 128.2 | 103 |
| Jackson Kent | 1-2 | 5.59 | 1.71 | 19.1 | 17 |
9-5
W-L
1-2
3.71 Ldr
ERA
5.59
1.34 Ldr
WHIP
1.71
128.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
19.1
103 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
17
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
61%
NATIONALS
39%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (ATL)
BRAVES
59%
Book Odds: -142
NATIONALS
46%
Book Odds: +118
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5
47%
Under 9.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Washington
WSH
141
Games Played
▲
143
4.67
Runs / Game
▲
5.16
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.248
.312
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.325
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.429
.725
OPS
▲
.753
179
Home Runs
▲
193
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+24.8% more
Atlanta: 3.8
vs
Washington: 2.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.4% more
Atlanta: 9.8
vs
Washington: 8.2
Home Runs (L5)
+12.3% more
Atlanta: 1.2
vs
Washington: 1.1
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
Washington: 0.5
vs
Atlanta: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.2
9
WSH Score
3.8
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 8.8
2.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.8
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 14.0
2.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.8
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -172 / +142
→
-142 / +118
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 10
→
9.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
84-57-0
(59.6%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
WSH
67-76-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
63-71-7
O: 47.0% / U: 53.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
WSH
73-62-8
O: 54.1% / U: 45.9%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
56%
79-63
45%
63-76
54%
77-65
54%
75-65
ATS
58%
82-60
57%
79-60
54%
77-65
52%
73-67
TTL
49%
66-70-6
54%
71-61-7
85%
118-21-3
85%
118-21-1
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