ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
69-70 | Road
13
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
82-56 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eric Lauer
#33 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 5-9 | 3.86 | 1.25 | 142.1 | 98 |
| Eric Lauer | 8-6 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 105.1 | 70 |
5-9
W-L
8-6
3.86 Ldr
ERA
4.78
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.26
142.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
105.1
98 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
70
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
47%
DODGERS
53%
▲ Edge: +10% (STL)
CARDINALS
38%
Book Odds: +167
DODGERS
67%
Book Odds: -204
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.0
45%
Under 9.0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.0%
LAD By 1-2 runs
18.7%
LAD By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Los Angeles
4.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
C
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
STL @ LAD
2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
STL @ LAD
8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
STL @ LAD
13 - 8
May 3, 2026
LAD @ STL
4 - 1
May 2, 2026
LAD @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.691
OPS
▲
.762
167
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+48.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.0
vs
St. Louis: 2.7
Home Runs (Season)
+22.2% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+7.1%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.1
13
LAD Score
4.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.6
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 10.7
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 11.1
12.0 / 29.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.7
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -183
→
+167 / -204
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
STL
LAD
STL
ML
56%
92-73
53%
85-74
48%
79-87
52%
84-77
ATS
59%
98-67
56%
89-70
43%
72-94
53%
85-76
TTL
48%
77-82-6
46%
68-81-10
44%
70-90-6
50%
76-75-10
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