BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
69-70 | Road
2
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
53-86 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Bradish
#38 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabriel Hughes
#43 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 7-12 | 4.03 | 1.41 | 143.0 | 133 |
| Gabriel Hughes | 0-6 | 6.61 | 1.45 | 47.2 | 38 |
7-12
W-L
0-6
4.03 Ldr
ERA
6.61
1.41 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
143.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
47.2
133 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
38
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
68%
ROCKIES
32%
▲ Edge: +6.90% (BAL)
ORIOLES
61%
Book Odds: -156
ROCKIES
44%
Book Odds: +129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.2 (Under)
Over 11.0
41%
Under 11.0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
COL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.9
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
3.9
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Baltimore
7
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
o11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
BAL @ COL
5 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
BAL @ COL
2 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
BAL @ COL
2 - 1
Jul 27, 2025
COL @ BAL
1 - 5
Jul 26, 2025
COL @ BAL
0 - 18
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Colorado
COL
143
▲
Games Played
142
4.48
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.416
.710
OPS
▲
.740
172
▲
Home Runs
156
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+55.5% more
Baltimore: 1.1
vs
Colorado: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.5% more
Baltimore: 8.2
vs
Colorado: 6.7
Home Runs (Season)
+9.3% more
Baltimore: 172.0
vs
Colorado: 156.0
Walks (L5)
+46.2% more
Colorado: 4.8
vs
Baltimore: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.9
2
COL Score
3.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 6.3
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 8.2
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 11.7
20.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119
→
-156 / +129
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
69-74-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
55-87-0
(38.7%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(51.1%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(54.2%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
70-69-4
O: 50.4% / U: 49.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
67-72-3
O: 48.2% / U: 51.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
BAL
COL
BAL
ML
57%
80-61
54%
75-65
51%
72-69
57%
81-61
ATS
60%
85-56
61%
85-54-1
50%
70-71
56%
79-63
TTL
57%
78-60-3
53%
71-64-5
84%
119-22
85%
119-21-2
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