ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
53-86 | Road
5
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
69-70 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Basso
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
MacKenzie Gore
#1 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Basso | 0-1 | 4.50 | 1.39 | 28.0 | 22 |
| MacKenzie Gore | 7-10 | 4.40 | 1.28 | 149.1 | 165 |
0-1
W-L
7-10
4.50
ERA
Ldr 4.40
1.39
WHIP
Ldr 1.28
28.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.1
22
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 165
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
40%
RANGERS
60%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (ATH)
ATHLETICS
35%
Book Odds: +183
RANGERS
69%
Book Odds: -225
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 7.5
62%
Under 7.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.3%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Texas
4.9
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.1
D
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
B
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATH @ TEX
9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
ATH @ TEX
5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026
ATH @ TEX
1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026
TEX @ ATH
2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
TEX @ ATH
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719
▲
OPS
.713
194
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+98.0% more
Texas: 1.5
vs
Athletics: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+40.7% more
Texas: 15.0
vs
Athletics: 10.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.6% more
Texas: 9.0
vs
Athletics: 7.7
Hits (L5)
+14.8% more
Texas: 8.4
vs
Athletics: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.8
5
TEX Score
4.9
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.3
12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.7
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 10.6
17.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.0
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +197 / -244
→
+183 / -225
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATH
TEX
ATH
ML
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
92-70
52%
84-78
61%
98-63
50%
81-80
TTL
53%
78-70-14
54%
84-73-5
55%
81-66-14
42%
66-90-5
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