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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

70-69  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Sep 1 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

62-77  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips 3-6 3.59 1.37 105.1 86
Randy Dobnak 2-2 1.92 1.37 51.2 34
3-6 W-L 2-2
3.59 ERA Ldr 1.92
1.37 WHIP 1.37
105.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 51.2
86 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 34
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
48%
📊
ROYALS
52%
MARLINS 51% Book Odds: -105
ROYALS 53% Book Odds: -114
Book Implied: 51.20% / 53.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.6 (Under)
Over 9.5 28%
Under 9.5 72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Kansas City)
MarlinsMIA (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

49.0%

Royals Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

MIA By 1-2 runs

18.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

13.3%

KC By 1-2 runs

18.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5.50
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5.50
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
A
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 MIA @ KC 3 - 7
Sep 2, 2026 MIA @ KC 9 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 MIA @ KC 6 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 KC @ MIA 7 - 4
Jul 19, 2025 KC @ MIA 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.727 ▲
OPS
.718
168
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +45.4% more
Kansas City: 14.7 vs Miami: 10.1
Home Runs (L5) +27.0% more
Kansas City: 0.8 vs Miami: 0.6
Hits (L5) +26.0% more
Kansas City: 9.6 vs Miami: 7.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 40.2% vs Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.4 6
KC Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.6 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.4 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 10.1 10.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -114 → -105 / -114
38%TICKETS62%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
24%TICKETS76%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
90%TICKETS10%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIA
KC
MIA
ML
55% 89-72
48% 78-84
56% 90-70
55% 88-72
ATS
57% 91-70
56% 91-71
58% 93-67
54% 86-74
TTL
58% 90-64-7
56% 88-69-5
54% 83-70-7
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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