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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

63-75  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Sep 1 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

67-72  |  Home

15
Probable Pitchers
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Morris

#78 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Troy Melton 7-3 1.86 1.01 97.0 80
Andrew Morris 4-7 3.82 1.34 63.2 59
7-3 W-L 4-7
1.86 Ldr ERA 3.82
1.01 Ldr WHIP 1.34
97.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 63.2
80 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 59
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
74%
📊
TWINS
26%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (DET)
TIGERS 52% Book Odds: -107
TWINS 53% Book Odds: -112
Book Implied: 51.70% / 52.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 8.5 53%
Under 8.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

76.6%

Twins Cover

23.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.5%

MIN By 1-2 runs

10.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

5.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
2.9
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Twins Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
C
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Aug 31, 2026 DET @ MIN 1 - 11
Jun 11, 2026 MIN @ DET 0 - 11
Jun 10, 2026 MIN @ DET 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Minnesota MIN
141
Games Played
141
4.39
Runs / Game
▲ 4.67
.238
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .408
.710
OPS
▲ .728
158
Home Runs
▲ 166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +80.6% more
Detroit: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.2
Walks (L5) +41.3% more
Detroit: 3.9 vs Minnesota: 2.3
Home Runs (L5) +163.0% more
Minnesota: 2.1 vs Detroit: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +136.8% more
Minnesota: 16.5 vs Detroit: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.8 2
MIN Score 2.9 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 4.5 13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.4 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.5 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 7.0 27.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.9 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135 → -107 / -112 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
65-77-0 (45.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
68-74-0 (47.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(50.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
61-75-6
O: 44.9% / U: 55.2% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
76-57-9
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
51% 73-69
55% 76-63
50% 71-70
54% 76-64
ATS
58% 83-59
63% 87-52
50% 71-70
53% 74-66
TTL
49% 66-69-7
44% 58-74-7
83% 114-24-3
84% 116-22-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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