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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

63-75  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Sep 1 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

67-72  |  Home

15
Probable Pitchers
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Morris

#78 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Troy Melton 7-3 1.86 1.01 97.0 80
Andrew Morris 4-7 3.82 1.34 63.2 59
7-3 W-L 4-7
1.86 Ldr ERA 3.82
1.01 Ldr WHIP 1.34
97.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 63.2
80 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 59
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
74%
📊
TWINS
26%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (DET)
TIGERS 52% Book Odds: -107
TWINS 53% Book Odds: -112
Book Implied: 51.70% / 52.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 8.5 53%
Under 8.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

76.6%

Twins Cover

23.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.5%

MIN By 1-2 runs

10.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

5.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
2.9
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Twins Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
C
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.720
OPS
.720
181
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +80.6% more
Detroit: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.2
Walks (L5) +41.3% more
Detroit: 3.9 vs Minnesota: 2.3
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Minnesota: 31.7%
Home Runs (L5) +163.0% more
Minnesota: 2.1 vs Detroit: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.8 2
MIN Score 2.9 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 4.5 13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.4 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.5 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 7.0 27.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.9 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135 → -107 / -112 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
52% 84-78
54% 86-73
50% 80-81
54% 87-73
ATS
59% 95-67
64% 101-58
59% 95-66
57% 91-69
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-9
53% 80-72-9
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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