ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
82-57 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
67-74 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Smith-Shawver
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 0-0 | 5.93 | 1.61 | 13.2 | 10 |
| Jake Irvin | 2-8 | 5.62 | 1.40 | 81.2 | 82 |
0-0
W-L
2-8
5.93
ERA
Ldr 5.62
1.61
WHIP
Ldr 1.40
13.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 81.2
10
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 82
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
42%
NATIONALS
58%
▲ Edge: +13.70% (WSH)
BRAVES
60%
Book Odds: -149
NATIONALS
45%
Book Odds: +123
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 9.5
48%
Under 9.5
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.9%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Washington
5.1
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Washington
WSH
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.757
▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+20900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+75.9% more
Washington: 3.7
vs
Atlanta: 2.1
Errors (L5)
+74.0% more
Washington: 0.8
vs
Atlanta: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+27.0% more
Washington: 1.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.2
5
WSH Score
5.1
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.1
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.6
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 12.9
18.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.1
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -175 / +144
→
-149 / +123
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
57%
92-69
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
83-73-11
42%
65-90-6
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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