TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
68-71 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
70-68 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Spencer Miles
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Miles | 5-2 | 2.92 | 1.09 | 83.1 | 77 |
| Gavin Williams | 12-7 | 3.98 | 1.12 | 156.0 | 204 |
5-2
W-L
12-7
2.92 Ldr
ERA
3.98
1.09 Ldr
WHIP
1.12
83.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 156.0
77
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 204
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
64%
GUARDIANS
36%
▲ Edge: +23.90% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
40%
Book Odds: +148
GUARDIANS
64%
Book Odds: -179
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.4 (Under)
Over 8.0
39%
Under 8.0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.1
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Cleveland
2.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Guardians
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
6 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
TOR @ CLE
11 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
TOR @ CLE
1 - 6
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
CLE @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.692
OPS
▲
.696
152
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+26.1% more
Toronto: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+19.1% more
Toronto: 3.7
vs
Cleveland: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.1% more
Toronto: 7.7
vs
Cleveland: 6.9
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Cleveland: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.1
1
CLE Score
2.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 8.7
8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.7
14.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 14.9
18.0 / 3.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.7
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175
→
+148 / -179
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
54%
87-74
46%
74-87
49%
80-82
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
TTL
55%
88-71-2
51%
80-76-5
43%
69-90-2
45%
70-85-5
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