Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Málaga vs Deportivo Málaga vs Deportivo

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 24 • 3:30 PM ET
La Rosaleda

DEPORTIVODEPORTIVO

2-4-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
MÁLAGA
18%
DRAW
21%
DEPORTIVO
61%
▲ Edge: +6.10% (Deportivo)
41% Book Odds: +143
DRAW 32% Book Odds: +210
30% Book Odds: +237
Book Implied: 41.20% / 32.30% / 29.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 2.25 55%
Under 2.25 45%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
DEPORTIVO
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Deportivo)
MálagaMálaga (-0.2) 0 DeportivoDeportivo (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.2% / 44.8%

Shots (On Goal)

13(2) / 6(4)

Corners

8 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Deportivo -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Deportivo)

Málaga By 1 goal

11.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

4.8%

Deportivo By 1 goal

26.1%

Deportivo By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
2
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
0
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Deportivo Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Málaga Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Deportivo (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Málaga (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u2.3 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 24, 2026 Málaga vs Deportivo 1 - 1
Apr 6, 2018 Deportivo vs Málaga 3 - 2
Nov 19, 2017 Málaga vs Deportivo 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2017 Deportivo vs Málaga 2 - 0
Nov 26, 2016 Málaga vs Deportivo 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Deportivo: 2.0 vs Málaga: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +80.0% more
Deportivo: 5.0 vs Málaga: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +125.0% more
Málaga: 9.0 vs Deportivo: 4.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Málaga: 2.0 vs Deportivo: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Deportivo Score 2.0 1
Málaga Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Málaga (Home) vs Deportivo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Málaga Share: 33.3% Deportivo Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Málaga
Deportivo
Málaga
Deportivo
ML
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
0% 0-7
ATS
43% 3-4
100% 7-0
43% 3-4
0% 0-7
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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