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C PALACEC PALACE

0-0-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Selhurst Park

MAN CITYMAN CITY

2-0-0  |  Away

4
AI Model Win Probability
C PALACE
18%
DRAW
21%
MAN CITY
61%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (Crystal Palace)
18% Book Odds: +455
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +315
61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 18% / 24.10% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 59%
Under 2.75 41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN CITY
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Man City)
C PalaceC Palace (+0.8) 0 Man CityMan City (-0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

27.8% / 72.2%

Shots (On Goal)

9(1) / 18(9)

Corners

2 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester City -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester City)

Crystal Palace By 1 goal

11.1%

Crystal Palace By 2+ goals

4.8%

Manchester City By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester City By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
C PALACE
Book Implied: 1
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
C PALACE
Book Implied: 1
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Manchester City Win
59% Win Prob
B
Sim Manchester City Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Manchester City (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Manchester City (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 C Palace vs Man City 1 - 4
Apr 12, 2025 Man City vs C Palace 5 - 2
Dec 7, 2024 C Palace vs Man City 2 - 2
Apr 6, 2024 C Palace vs Man City 2 - 4
Dec 16, 2023 Man City vs C Palace 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Man City: 1.0 vs C Palace: 0.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
C Palace: 3.0 vs Man City: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +42.9% more
C Palace: 10.0 vs Man City: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Manchester City Score 2.0 4
Crystal Palace Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Manchester City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Crystal Palace Share: 33.3% Manchester City Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
ML
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
ATS
100% 2-0
100% 1-0-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
TTL
50% 1-1
100% 1-0-1
100% 2-0
100% 1-0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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