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FULHAMFULHAM

0-0-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Mon, Aug 24 • 3:00 PM ET
Craven Cottage

CHELSEACHELSEA

2-0-0  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
FULHAM
40%
DRAW
21%
CHELSEA
40%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (Chelsea)
26% Book Odds: +288
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 25.80% / 27.80% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 59%
Under 2.5 41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
FULHAM
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Fulham)
FulhamFulham (+0.5) 0 ChelseaChelsea (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

61.5% / 38.5%

Shots (On Goal)

14(6) / 18(6)

Corners

6 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Fulham 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Fulham)

Fulham By 1 goal

21.1%

Fulham By 2+ goals

15.9%

Chelsea By 1 goal

21.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
FULHAM
Book Implied: 1
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
FULHAM
Book Implied: 1
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
39% Win Prob
C
Sim Chelsea Win
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Fulham (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Chelsea (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 24, 2026 Fulham vs Chelsea 2 - 3
Jan 7, 2026 Fulham vs Chelsea 2 - 1
Aug 30, 2025 Chelsea vs Fulham 2 - 0
Apr 20, 2025 Fulham vs Chelsea 1 - 2
Dec 26, 2024 Chelsea vs Fulham 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +42.9% more
Chelsea: 10.0 vs Fulham: 7.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Fulham: 2.0 vs Chelsea: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Fulham: 1.0 vs Chelsea: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Fulham: 5.0 vs Chelsea: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Chelsea Score 2.0 3
Fulham Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
Fulham (Home) vs Chelsea (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Fulham Share: 50.0% Chelsea Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Fulham
Chelsea
Fulham
Chelsea
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
ATS
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
TTL
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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