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NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

2-2-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 11:30 AM ET
St. James' Park

LIVERPOOLLIVERPOOL

2-3-0  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
NEWCASTLE
40%
DRAW
21%
LIVERPOOL
40%
▲ Edge: +23.50% (Newcastle United)
27% Book Odds: +277
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +294
52% Book Odds: -106
Book Implied: 26.50% / 25.40% / 51.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 3.25 47%
Under 3.25 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
NEWCASTLE
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Newcastle)
NewcastleNewcastle (+0.5) 0 LiverpoolLiverpool (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

39.2% / 60.8%

Shots (On Goal)

13(4) / 27(7)

Corners

2 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Newcastle United 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Newcastle United)

Newcastle United By 1 goal

21.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

15.9%

Liverpool By 1 goal

21.1%

Liverpool By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.40
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.90
Simulated Score
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.40
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Win
47% Win Prob
B
Sim Liverpool Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Newcastle United (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Liverpool (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o3.25 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Sim u3.3 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 Newcastle vs Liverpool 2 - 2
Jan 31, 2026 Liverpool vs Newcastle 4 - 1
Aug 25, 2025 Newcastle vs Liverpool 2 - 3
Feb 26, 2025 Liverpool vs Newcastle 2 - 0
Dec 4, 2024 Newcastle vs Liverpool 3 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Liverpool: 2.0 vs Newcastle: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +57.1% more
Liverpool: 7.0 vs Newcastle: 11.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Liverpool: 2.0 vs Newcastle: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Liverpool: 7.0 vs Newcastle: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Liverpool Score 2.0 2
Newcastle United Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
Newcastle United (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Newcastle United Share: 50.0% Liverpool Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Newcastle United
Liverpool
Newcastle United
Liverpool
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
ATS
29% 1-2-1
100% 5-0
29% 1-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
67% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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