Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Man City vs Bournemouth Man City vs Bournemouth

MAN CITYMAN CITY

5-0-0  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 9:00 AM ET
Etihad Stadium

BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

0-3-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
MAN CITY
61%
DRAW
21%
BOURNEMOUTH
18%
▲ Edge: +24.80% (AFC Bournemouth)
67% Book Odds: -205
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +395
15% Book Odds: +560
Book Implied: 67.20% / 20.20% / 15.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 53%
Under 3.0 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Bournemouth)
Man CityMan City (-1.2) 0 BournemouthBournemouth (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

66.1% / 33.9%

Shots (On Goal)

13(6) / 5(4)

Corners

8 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around AFC Bournemouth +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFC Bournemouth)

Manchester City By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester City By 2+ goals

36.9%

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

11.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 2.10
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 2.10
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Manchester City Win
60% Win Prob
A
Sim Manchester City Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI AFC Bournemouth (+1.25) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Manchester City (-1.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o3.0 Push
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 Man City vs Bournemouth 2 - 1
Nov 2, 2025 Man City vs Bournemouth 3 - 1
May 20, 2025 Man City vs Bournemouth 3 - 1
Nov 2, 2024 Bournemouth vs Man City 2 - 1
Feb 24, 2024 Bournemouth vs Man City 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Bournemouth: 1.0 vs Man City: 2.0
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Bournemouth: 3.0 vs Man City: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Bournemouth: 6.0 vs Man City: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFC Bournemouth Score 1.0 1
Manchester City Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Manchester City (Home) vs AFC Bournemouth (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Manchester City Share: 66.7% AFC Bournemouth Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Manchester City
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
AFC Bournemouth
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
ATS
60% 3-2
88% 3-0-1
60% 3-2
38% 1-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2-1
75% 3-1-1
75% 3-1-1
50% 2-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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