BRIGHTONBRIGHTON
3-1-1 | Home
4
ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA
1-1-3 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
BRIGHTON
61%
DRAW
21%
ASTON VILLA
18%
▲ Edge: +26.10% (Aston Villa)
47%
Book Odds: +113
DRAW
29%
Book Odds: +250
27%
Book Odds: +266
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRIGHTON
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Brighton)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
72.9% / 27.1%
Shots (On Goal)
21(6) / 6(0)
Corners
5 / 2
Cards (Y/R)
2/0 - 3/1
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Brighton & Hove Albion -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal
26.1%
Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals
36.9%
Aston Villa By 1 goal
11.1%
Aston Villa By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Brighton
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.40
Aston Villa
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
Brighton
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.40
Aston Villa
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brighton & Hove Albion
Win
47% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brighton & Hove Albion
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brighton & Hove Albion (-0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim
Brighton & Hove Albion (-0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o2.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim
o2.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
Brighton vs Aston Villa
4 - 0
Feb 11, 2026
Aston Villa vs Brighton
1 - 0
Dec 3, 2025
Brighton vs Aston Villa
3 - 4
Apr 2, 2025
Brighton vs Aston Villa
0 - 3
Dec 30, 2024
Aston Villa vs Brighton
2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5)
+200.0% more
Brighton: 1.0
vs
Aston Villa: 3.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Brighton: 1.0
vs
Aston Villa: 0.0
Wins (L5)
+50.0% more
Brighton: 3.0
vs
Aston Villa: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+16.7% more
Brighton: 6.0
vs
Aston Villa: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Aston Villa Score
1.0
0
Brighton & Hove Albion Score
2.0
4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Brighton & Hove Albion (Home)
vs
Aston Villa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
ML
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
ATS
40%
2-3
100%
4-0-1
60%
3-2
50%
2-2-1
TTL
56%
2-2
60%
3-2
56%
2-2
20%
1-4