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TIJUANATIJUANA

4-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Caliente

UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
TIJUANA
35%
DRAW
31%
UNAM
35%
▲ Edge: +23.60% (Pumas UNAM)
50% Book Odds: +102
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +264
26% Book Odds: +279
Book Implied: 49.50% / 27.50% / 26.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 49%
Under 2.5 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
UNAM
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (UNAM)
TijuanaTijuana (-0.5) 0 UNAMUNAM (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.1% / 42.9%

Shots (On Goal)

11(3) / 10(3)

Corners

3 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Pumas UNAM 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pumas UNAM)

Tijuana By 1 goal

21.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

15.9%

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

21.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.50
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.50
0
UNAM
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
43% Win Prob
C
Sim Tijuana Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pumas UNAM (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Tijuana (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 Tijuana vs UNAM 2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026 Tijuana vs UNAM 2 - 2
Feb 27, 2026 Tijuana vs UNAM 1 - 1
Nov 2, 2025 UNAM vs Tijuana 4 - 1
Oct 5, 2025 UNAM vs Tijuana 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
UNAM: 3.0 vs Tijuana: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
UNAM: 1.0 vs Tijuana: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +150.0% more
UNAM: 4.0 vs Tijuana: 10.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Tijuana: 5.0 vs UNAM: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 0
Tijuana Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Tijuana (Home) vs Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tijuana Share: 50.0% Pumas UNAM Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tijuana
Pumas UNAM
Tijuana
Pumas UNAM
ML
22% 2-7
50% 5-5
44% 4-5
22% 2-7
ATS
75% 6-2-1
47% 4-5
50% 4-4-1
12% 1-7
TTL
67% 6-3
68% 6-3
44% 4-5
65% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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