Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Necaxa vs Cruz Azul

NECAXANECAXA

2-2-6  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Victoria

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
NECAXA
61%
DRAW
21%
CRUZ AZUL
18%
▲ Edge: +12.70% (Cruz Azul)
27% Book Odds: +269
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +272
50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 27.10% / 26.90% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 51%
Under 2.75 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
NECAXA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Necaxa)
NecaxaNecaxa (+0.5) 0 Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.8% / 54.2%

Shots (On Goal)

13(4) / 22(8)

Corners

7 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Necaxa -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Necaxa)

Necaxa By 1 goal

26.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

36.9%

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

11.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
1
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Necaxa Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Cruz Azul Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Necaxa (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Cruz Azul (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 Necaxa vs Cruz Azul 1 - 3
Apr 4, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Necaxa 1 - 2
Oct 21, 2025 Necaxa vs Cruz Azul 1 - 1
Sep 13, 2025 Necaxa vs Cruz Azul 0 - 1
Feb 8, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Necaxa 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Necaxa: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Necaxa: 2.0 vs Cruz Azul: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Necaxa: 5.0 vs Cruz Azul: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Cruz Azul Score 1.0 3
Necaxa Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Necaxa (Home) vs Cruz Azul (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Necaxa Share: 66.7% Cruz Azul Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
ML
40% 4-6
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
ATS
60% 6-4
44% 4-5-1
60% 6-4
44% 4-5-1
TTL
60% 6-4
44% 4-5-1
90% 9-1
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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