Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlante vs León Atlante vs León

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

LEÓNLEÓN

5-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATLANTE
18%
DRAW
21%
LEÓN
61%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (León)
39% Book Odds: +157
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +280
38% Book Odds: +163
Book Implied: 38.90% / 26.30% / 38%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 56%
Under 2.75 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (León)
AtlanteAtlante (0) 0 LeónLeón (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

47.8% / 52.2%

Shots (On Goal)

17(4) / 12(5)

Corners

3 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around León -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

Atlante By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

4.8%

León By 1 goal

26.1%

León By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.40
2
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
0
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.40
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI León Win
43% Win Prob
C
Sim León Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI León (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim León (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 Atlante vs León 1 - 1
Mar 6, 2026 Atlante vs León 4 - 2
Jan 16, 2026 Atlante vs León 1 - 5
Sep 23, 2025 León vs Atlante 2 - 2
Aug 17, 2025 León vs Atlante 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +900.0% more
León: 10.0 vs Atlante: 1.0
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
León: 4.0 vs Atlante: 0.0
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
León: 0.0 vs Atlante: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
León: 3.0 vs Atlante: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
León Score 2.0 1
Atlante Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Atlante (Home) vs León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlante Share: 33.3% León Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlante
León
Atlante
León
ML
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
10% 1-9
30% 3-7
ATS
59% 5-3-1
57% 4-3-3
27% 2-5-2
29% 2-5-3
TTL
20% 2-8
37% 3-6
70% 7-3
47% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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