Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / UNAM vs Necaxa UNAM vs Necaxa

UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

NECAXANECAXA

2-2-6  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
UNAM
61%
DRAW
21%
NECAXA
18%
▲ Edge: +27% (Necaxa)
52% Book Odds: -108
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +281
25% Book Odds: +295
Book Implied: 51.90% / 26.20% / 25.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 51%
Under 2.75 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
UNAM
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (UNAM)
UNAMUNAM (-0.5) 0 NecaxaNecaxa (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.4% / 51.6%

Shots (On Goal)

23(5) / 16(4)

Corners

8 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Pumas UNAM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pumas UNAM)

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

26.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

36.9%

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pumas UNAM Loss
48% Win Prob
A
Sim Pumas UNAM Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pumas UNAM (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Pumas UNAM (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 UNAM vs Necaxa 1 - 1
Mar 6, 2026 Necaxa vs UNAM 0 - 1
Nov 20, 2025 Necaxa vs UNAM 3 - 1
Aug 10, 2025 UNAM vs Necaxa 1 - 1
Jul 20, 2025 UNAM vs Necaxa 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
UNAM: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
UNAM: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
UNAM: 6.0 vs Necaxa: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +300.0% more
Necaxa: 4.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Necaxa Score 1.0 1
Pumas UNAM Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Pumas UNAM (Home) vs Necaxa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pumas UNAM Share: 66.7% Necaxa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pumas UNAM
Necaxa
Pumas UNAM
Necaxa
ML
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
22% 2-7
50% 5-5
ATS
47% 4-5
60% 6-4
12% 1-7
60% 6-4
TTL
68% 6-3
60% 6-4
65% 5-3
90% 9-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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