Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atl. San Luis vs Pachuca Atl. San Luis vs Pachuca

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Libertad Financiera

PACHUCAPACHUCA

1-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATL. SAN LUIS
61%
DRAW
21%
PACHUCA
18%
▲ Edge: +15.30% (Pachuca)
30% Book Odds: +230
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +262
46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 30.30% / 27.60% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 54%
Under 2.75 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Atl. San Luis)
Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+0.2) 0 PachucaPachuca (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

69.0% / 31.0%

Shots (On Goal)

17(7) / 10(2)

Corners

1 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético de San Luis -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético de San Luis)

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

36.9%

Pachuca By 1 goal

11.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.20
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.20
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Atlético de San Luis Loss
39% Win Prob
C
Sim Pachuca Loss
62% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Atlético de San Luis (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Pachuca (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Pachuca 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 2.0 vs Pachuca: 0.0
Losses (L5) +33.3% more
Atl. San Luis: 3.0 vs Pachuca: 4.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Pachuca: 1.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +44.4% more
Pachuca: 9.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pachuca Score 1.0 1
Atlético de San Luis Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Atlético de San Luis (Home) vs Pachuca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético de San Luis Share: 66.7% Pachuca Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético de San Luis
Pachuca
Atlético de San Luis
Pachuca
ML
30% 3-7
40% 4-6
50% 5-5
22% 2-7
ATS
56% 5-4-1
78% 7-2-1
62% 5-3-2
22% 2-7
TTL
32% 3-6
50% 5-5
68% 6-3
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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