PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
78-60 | Road
2
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
73-66 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5-10 | 5.03 | 1.40 | 143.0 | 153 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-1 | 3.51 | 1.14 | 105.0 | 72 |
5-10
W-L
7-1
5.03
ERA
Ldr 3.51
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.14
143.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
105.0
153 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
72
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
40%
DIAMONDBACKS
60%
▲ Edge: +9.70% (ARI)
PHILLIES
51%
Book Odds: -105
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
Book Odds: -102
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.0
59%
Under 8.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.0%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Arizona
5.3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
60% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Arizona
ARI
142
Games Played
▲
143
4.49
▲
Runs / Game
4.43
.242
Avg (AVG)
.242
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.713
▲
OPS
.708
167
▲
Home Runs
140
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+21.9% more
Arizona: 1.4
vs
Philadelphia: 1.1
Home Runs (Season)
+16.2% more
Philadelphia: 167.0
vs
Arizona: 140.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.3% more
Philadelphia: 4.5
vs
Arizona: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Philadelphia: 40.0%
vs
Arizona: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.1
2
ARI Score
5.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.1
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.2
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 14.0
10.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105
→
-105 / -102
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
80-62-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
75-68-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
63-70-9
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
ARI
61-76-6
O: 44.5% / U: 55.5%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PHI
ARI
PHI
ML
53%
75-67
59%
83-58
54%
76-65
51%
72-69
ATS
58%
82-60
65%
92-49
53%
75-66
47%
66-75
TTL
49%
66-70-6
56%
75-58-8
87%
122-19
85%
117-20-4
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