BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
69-69 | Road
2
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
52-86 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Povich
#37 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Povich | 2-1 | 4.45 | 1.41 | 28.1 | 21 |
| Tanner Gordon | 1-4 | 5.38 | 1.43 | 83.2 | 69 |
2-1
W-L
1-4
4.45 Ldr
ERA
5.38
1.41 Ldr
WHIP
1.43
28.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 83.2
21
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 69
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
60%
ROCKIES
40%
▲ Edge: +5.20% (BAL)
ORIOLES
55%
Book Odds: -120
ROCKIES
47%
Book Odds: +112
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.6 (Under)
Over 11.0
27%
Under 11.0
73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
COL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.7
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
3.7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rockies
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
o11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
BAL @ COL
5 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
BAL @ COL
2 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
BAL @ COL
2 - 1
Jul 27, 2025
COL @ BAL
1 - 5
Jul 26, 2025
COL @ BAL
0 - 18
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Colorado
COL
142
▲
Games Played
141
4.51
Runs / Game
▲
4.69
.235
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.711
OPS
▲
.740
172
▲
Home Runs
156
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+55.4% more
Baltimore: 1.7
vs
Colorado: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+22.3% more
Baltimore: 14.5
vs
Colorado: 11.3
Home Runs (Season)
+9.3% more
Baltimore: 172.0
vs
Colorado: 156.0
Walks (L5)
+43.7% more
Colorado: 4.2
vs
Baltimore: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.7
2
COL Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.5
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.2
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 14.5
10.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.9
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119
→
-120 / +112
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
69-73-0
(48.6%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
54-87-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(51.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(53.9%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
70-68-4
O: 50.7% / U: 49.3%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
66-72-3
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
BAL
COL
BAL
ML
57%
80-60
53%
74-65
51%
72-68
57%
81-60
ATS
60%
84-56
62%
85-53-1
50%
70-70
56%
79-62
TTL
57%
78-59-3
53%
71-63-5
85%
119-21
86%
119-20-2
Contextual Game News
Cardinals vs. Rockies: How to Catch the September 5 Clash at Coo…
Rece Davis Admits College Football Has Already Turned Profession…
Connecticut's Rising Stars: Top 20 Minor League Prospects Ranked
Herrera's Ninth-Inning Blast Propels Cardinals to Comeback Win O…
!role~Preview!mt~photo!fmt~JPEG%20Baseline)
Herrera's Ninth-Inning Blast Propels Cardinals to Comeback Victo…