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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

53-85  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

68-70  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Gage Jump
STARTING PITCHER

Gage Jump

#61 | SP
@
Jacob deGrom
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob deGrom

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gage Jump 6-8 4.69 1.46 88.1 97
Jacob deGrom 9-9 4.21 1.18 130.1 159
6-8 W-L 9-9
4.69 ERA Ldr 4.21
1.46 WHIP Ldr 1.18
88.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 130.1
97 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 159
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
32%
📊
RANGERS
68%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (TEX)
ATHLETICS 34% Book Odds: +195
RANGERS 68% Book Odds: -211
Book Implied: 33.90% / 67.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 7.5 74%
Under 7.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Texas)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
Texas Rangers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

30.0%

Rangers Cover

70.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

ATH By 1-2 runs

13.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

7.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.5%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
6.1
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Rangers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATH @ TEX 9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 ATH @ TEX 5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026 ATH @ TEX 1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026 TEX @ ATH 2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 TEX @ ATH 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Texas TEX
143
Games Played
143
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.248 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.407 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.398
.728 ▲
OPS
.715
174 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +97.0% more
Texas: 1.7 vs Athletics: 0.8
Walks (L5) +14.4% more
Texas: 4.0 vs Athletics: 3.5
Total Bases (L5) +10.8% more
Texas: 15.4 vs Athletics: 13.9
Strikeouts (L5) +21.6% more
Athletics: 10.1 vs Texas: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 4.0 1
TEX Score 6.1 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.5 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 10.1 11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 13.9 14.0 / 4.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.5 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +178 / -218 → +195 / -211 ↓
15%TICKETS85%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
21%TICKETS79%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
57-86-0 (39.9%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
70-73-0 (48.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-:
TEX
(46.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
73-66-4
O: 52.5% / U: 47.5% Total +/-: +0.8
TEX
71-64-8
O: 52.6% / U: 47.4% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATH
TEX
ATH
ML
52% 75-68
57% 82-61
58% 82-60
54% 77-65
ATS
57% 81-62
51% 73-70
56% 79-63
50% 71-71
TTL
51% 67-65-11
56% 78-61-4
86% 119-20-3
86% 120-20-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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