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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

63-74  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

66-72  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Jackson Jobe
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Jobe

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Taj Bradley
STARTING PITCHER

Taj Bradley

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Jobe 1-1 3.93 1.42 18.1 15
Taj Bradley 9-6 3.97 1.28 147.1 169
1-1 W-L 9-6
3.93 Ldr ERA 3.97
1.42 WHIP Ldr 1.28
18.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 147.1
15 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 169
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
63%
📊
TWINS
37%
▲ Edge: +16.30% (DET)
TIGERS 46% Book Odds: +116
TWINS 55% Book Odds: -124
Book Implied: 46.30% / 55.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 9.0 53%
Under 9.0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (+1.5) 0 TwinsMIN (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

63.7%

Twins Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.80
3.9
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.80
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Twins Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Twins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.720
OPS
.720
181
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +26.0% more
Detroit: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Walks (L5) +16.7% more
Detroit: 2.3 vs Minnesota: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5) +15.2% more
Detroit: 7.3 vs Minnesota: 6.2
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Minnesota: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.3 1
MIN Score 3.9 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.3 / 4.3 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.1 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 7.3 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 6.5 23.0 / 8.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.3 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -132 → +116 / -124 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
41%TICKETS59%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
84%TICKETS16%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
52% 84-78
54% 86-73
50% 80-81
54% 87-73
ATS
59% 95-67
64% 101-58
59% 95-66
57% 91-69
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-9
53% 80-72-9
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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