Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Nationals MIA @ WSH

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

69-69  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

66-74  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Gusto
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Gusto

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Will Dion
STARTING PITCHER

Will Dion

#76 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Gusto 1-3 3.98 1.33 63.1 53
Will Dion 1-1 3.67 1.14 34.1 41
1-3 W-L 1-1
3.98 ERA Ldr 3.67
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.14
63.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 34.1
53 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 41
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
45%
📊
NATIONALS
55%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (WSH)
MARLINS 53% Book Odds: -112
NATIONALS 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 52.80% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
MarlinsMIA (-1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

45.0%

Nationals Cover

55.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MIA By 1-2 runs

17.5%

MIA By 3-4 runs

12.1%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
4.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
1
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 MIA @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 MIA @ WSH 6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 MIA @ WSH 4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026 MIA @ WSH 2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026 WSH @ MIA 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.727
OPS
▲ .744
168
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +32.5% more
Washington: 12.2 vs Miami: 9.2
Hits (L5) +30.1% more
Washington: 7.7 vs Miami: 5.9
Home Runs (Season) +25.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season) +15.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.3 3
WSH Score 4.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 5.9 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 9.6 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 9.2 17.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.6 / 5.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / +104 → -112 / +104
58%TICKETS42%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
40%TICKETS60%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57% 92-69
48% 78-84
54% 87-74
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 91-71
57% 91-70
54% 86-74
TTL
50% 77-78-6
56% 88-69-5
42% 65-90-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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