MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
69-69 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
66-74 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Will Dion
#76 | RP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto | 1-3 | 3.98 | 1.33 | 63.1 | 53 |
| Will Dion | 1-1 | 3.67 | 1.14 | 34.1 | 41 |
1-3
W-L
1-1
3.98
ERA
Ldr 3.67
1.33
WHIP
Ldr 1.14
63.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
34.1
53 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
41
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
45%
NATIONALS
55%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (WSH)
MARLINS
53%
Book Odds: -112
NATIONALS
49%
Book Odds: +104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.1%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.1%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Washington
4.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Miami
1
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Washington
WSH
141
Games Played
▲
142
4.36
Runs / Game
▲
5.18
.248
Avg (AVG)
.248
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.325
.399
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.429
.725
OPS
▲
.754
144
Home Runs
▲
193
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+34.0% more
Washington: 193.0
vs
Miami: 144.0
Total Bases (L5)
+32.5% more
Washington: 12.2
vs
Miami: 9.2
Hits (L5)
+30.1% more
Washington: 7.7
vs
Miami: 5.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.8% more
Washington: 5.2
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.3
3
WSH Score
4.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 5.9
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.6
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 9.2
17.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.6 / 5.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / +104
→
-112 / +104
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
71-71-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
67-76-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(49.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
69-69-4
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
73-62-8
O: 54.1% / U: 45.9%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
56%
79-63
49%
69-73
54%
77-65
53%
74-66
ATS
58%
82-60
58%
83-59
54%
77-65
51%
72-68
TTL
49%
66-70-6
53%
73-65-4
85%
118-21-3
83%
116-23-1
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