Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Reds SD @ CIN

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

73-65  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

65-73  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | SP
@
Brady Singer
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Singer

#51 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael King 8-9 3.23 1.17 156.0 135
Brady Singer 5-12 4.72 1.42 137.1 112
8-9 W-L 5-12
3.23 Ldr ERA 4.72
1.17 Ldr WHIP 1.42
156.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 137.1
135 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 112
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
66%
📊
REDS
34%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (SD)
PADRES 60% Book Odds: -147
REDS 42% Book Odds: +137
Book Implied: 59.50% / 42.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 9.0 59%
Under 9.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
San Diego Padres (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

66.5%

Reds Cover

33.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.9%

CIN By 1-2 runs

14.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

8.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
4.1
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026 SD @ CIN 5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026 CIN @ SD 4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026 CIN @ SD 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Cincinnati CIN
141
Games Played
141
4.23 ▲
Runs / Game
4.17
.237 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.308
.386
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.700
OPS
▲ .704
154
Home Runs
▲ 188
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +30.2% more
San Diego: 4.1 vs Cincinnati: 2.9
Runs per Game (Season) +1.4% more
San Diego: 4.2 vs Cincinnati: 4.2
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
San Diego: 23.7% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.6%
San Diego: 31.4% vs Cincinnati: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 5.8 5
CIN Score 4.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 6.8 5.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 2.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 8.3 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 19.6 / 9.3 6.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.1 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -144 / +119 → -147 / +137 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
93%TICKETS7%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
87%TICKETS13%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
74-67-0 (52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
67-74-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.3%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
62-76-3
O: 44.9% / U: 55.1% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
75-64-2
O: 54.0% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SD
CIN
SD
ML
53% 73-65
49% 69-72
49% 68-71
49% 69-71
ATS
54% 75-63
55% 78-63
50% 69-70
51% 71-69
TTL
54% 73-62-3
48% 66-72-3
83% 115-23-1
86% 119-19-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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