SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
73-65 | Road
5
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
65-73 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 8-9 | 3.23 | 1.17 | 156.0 | 135 |
| Brady Singer | 5-12 | 4.72 | 1.42 | 137.1 | 112 |
8-9
W-L
5-12
3.23 Ldr
ERA
4.72
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.42
156.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
137.1
135 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
112
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
66%
REDS
34%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (SD)
PADRES
60%
Book Odds: -147
REDS
42%
Book Odds: +137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 9.0
59%
Under 9.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.9%
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
4.1
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.925
▲
OPS
.699
4
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Walks (L5)
+30.2% more
San Diego: 4.1
vs
Cincinnati: 2.9
OPS (Season)
+22.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.8
5
CIN Score
4.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 6.8
5.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
2.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.3
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
19.6 / 9.3
6.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.9 / 4.1
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -144 / +119
→
-147 / +137
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SD
CIN
SD
ML
55%
88-71
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
91-77
50%
80-80
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
81-73-5
51%
82-80-6
54%
83-72-5
54%
86-74-6
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