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SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

57-81  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

82-56  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Anthony Molina
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Molina

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryce Elder
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Elder

#55 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Anthony Molina 1-0 2.89 0.96 9.1 3
Bryce Elder 8-7 3.95 1.24 143.2 118
1-0 W-L 8-7
2.89 Ldr ERA 3.95
0.96 Ldr WHIP 1.24
9.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 143.2
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 118
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
68%
📊
BRAVES
32%
▲ Edge: +32.50% (SF)
GIANTS 36% Book Odds: +179
BRAVES 66% Book Odds: -193
Book Implied: 35.80% / 65.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 BravesATL (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

70.0%

Braves Cover

30.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

13.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.80
3.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.80
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Braves Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
A
Sim Braves (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 ATL @ SF 2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026 ATL @ SF 0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATL @ SF 3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Atlanta ATL
143 ▲
Games Played
141
4.20
Runs / Game
▲ 4.67
.248
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.309
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .312
.409
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.718
OPS
▲ .725
164
Home Runs
▲ 179
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +73.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8 vs Atlanta: 0.1
Walks (L5) +44.9% more
San Francisco: 3.1 vs Atlanta: 1.7
Home Runs (L5) +32.4% more
San Francisco: 1.1 vs Atlanta: 0.8
Hits (L5) +46.3% more
Atlanta: 9.2 vs San Francisco: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.3 7
ATL Score 3.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.2 / 6.3 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 7.8 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 11.1 13.0 / 22.0
Walks 1.7 / 3.1 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142 → +179 / -193 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
11%TICKETS89%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 9 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
59-84-0 (41.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
84-58-0 (59.2%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.7%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(53.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
67-64-12
O: 51.2% / U: 48.9% Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
63-72-7
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SF
ATL
SF
ML
46% 64-76
48% 68-73
54% 76-65
56% 79-62
ATS
57% 80-60
62% 87-54
52% 73-68
55% 78-63
TTL
53% 71-62-7
55% 72-60-9
84% 118-22-1
86% 120-19-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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