SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
57-81 | Road
7
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
82-56 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Molina
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Molina | 1-0 | 2.89 | 0.96 | 9.1 | 3 |
| Bryce Elder | 8-7 | 3.95 | 1.24 | 143.2 | 118 |
1-0
W-L
8-7
2.89 Ldr
ERA
3.95
0.96 Ldr
WHIP
1.24
9.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 143.2
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 118
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
68%
BRAVES
32%
▲ Edge: +32.50% (SF)
GIANTS
36%
Book Odds: +179
BRAVES
66%
Book Odds: -193
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0
46%
Under 9.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SF By 3-4 runs
18.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
3.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Braves
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
SF @ ATL
7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
ATL @ SF
2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026
ATL @ SF
0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026
ATL @ SF
3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
SF @ ATL
7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.706
OPS
▲
.757
178
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+73.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+44.9% more
San Francisco: 3.1
vs
Atlanta: 1.7
Home Runs (L5)
+32.4% more
San Francisco: 1.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.3
7
ATL Score
3.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 6.3
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.8
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 11.1
13.0 / 22.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.1
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
+179 / -193
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SF
ATL
SF
ML
46%
77-90
49%
79-81
54%
90-78
53%
85-75
ATS
57%
96-71
62%
100-60
52%
87-81
52%
83-77
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
82-68-10
49%
76-80-11
46%
68-81-11
Contextual Game News
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