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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

65-72  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 7:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

77-60  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Chase Burns
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Burns

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Burns 14-3 2.77 1.15 139.2 164
Shota Imanaga 8-9 3.78 1.12 145.1 144
14-3 W-L 8-9
2.77 Ldr ERA 3.78
1.15 WHIP Ldr 1.12
139.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 145.1
164 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 144
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
47%
📊
CUBS
53%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (CIN)
REDS 42% Book Odds: +140
CUBS 60% Book Odds: -150
Book Implied: 41.70% / 60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 9.0 59%
Under 9.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

53.0%

Cubs Cover

47.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

12.7%

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.9%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
5.4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
9
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 16.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699 ▲
OPS
.374
213 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +43.0% more
Chicago: 24.2 vs Cincinnati: 16.9
Home Runs (L5) +35.1% more
Chicago: 3.0 vs Cincinnati: 2.3
Hits (L5) +32.5% more
Chicago: 12.3 vs Cincinnati: 9.3
Walks (L5) +29.9% more
Chicago: 4.3 vs Cincinnati: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.1 7
CHC Score 5.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 12.3 / 9.3 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 3.0 / 2.3 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.1 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 24.2 / 16.9 16.0 / 25.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +172 / -185 → +140 / -150 ↓
25%TICKETS75%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
27%TICKETS73%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58% 93-68
55% 88-71
51% 82-79
49% 79-81
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 80-80
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-5
46% 72-83-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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