PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
77-60 | Road
5
LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
52-85 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yusei Kikuchi
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 10-5 | 3.40 | 1.09 | 124.1 | 148 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 0-4 | 6.25 | 1.58 | 36.0 | 37 |
10-5
W-L
0-4
3.40 Ldr
ERA
6.25
1.09 Ldr
WHIP
1.58
124.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
36.0
148 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
37
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
70%
ANGELS
30%
▲ Edge: +7.40% (PHI)
PHILLIES
62%
Book Odds: -165
ANGELS
40%
Book Odds: +153
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 7.5
59%
Under 7.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.7%
LAA By 1-2 runs
13.0%
LAA By 3-4 runs
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Angels
Loss
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
PHI @ LAA
5 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
PHI @ LAA
4 - 2
Aug 28, 2026
PHI @ LAA
5 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
LAA @ PHI
8 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
LAA @ PHI
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Los Angeles
LAA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.04
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.724
▲
OPS
.679
3
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+42.6% more
Philadelphia: 8.6
vs
Los Angeles: 5.0
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7
vs
Los Angeles: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+34.5% more
Philadelphia: 12.0
vs
Los Angeles: 7.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.6% more
Philadelphia: 8.3
vs
Los Angeles: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.2
5
LAA Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.0 / 8.6
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
7.9 / 12.0
10.0 / 18.0
Walks
5.5 / 2.8
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -237 / +192
→
-165 / +153
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
PHI
LAA
PHI
ML
59%
96-66
59%
97-67
55%
89-73
49%
80-84
ATS
60%
97-65
65%
107-57
51%
82-80
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-74-5
57%
88-67-9
52%
82-75-5
51%
78-76-9
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