BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
68-69 | Road
8
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
53-84 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Bassitt
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeffrey Springs
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 5-4 | 4.74 | 1.55 | 74.0 | 51 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 3-12 | 6.08 | 1.50 | 118.1 | 92 |
5-4
W-L
3-12
4.74 Ldr
ERA
6.08
1.55
WHIP
Ldr 1.50
74.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 118.1
51
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 92
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
54%
ATHLETICS
46%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (ATH)
ORIOLES
60%
Book Odds: -147
ATHLETICS
42%
Book Odds: +137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 10.0
59%
Under 10.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
15.3%
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.2%
ATH By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.7
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
5.1
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Baltimore
7
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.6
C
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o10.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
C
Sim
o10.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Athletics
ATH
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.719
199
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
Baltimore: 1.0
vs
Athletics: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+2.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Errors (L5)
+132.0% more
Athletics: 1.3
vs
Baltimore: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.7
8
ATH Score
5.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 7.8
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.9
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 12.8
15.0 / 18.0
Walks
4.7 / 2.9
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -148 / +122
→
-147 / +137
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
10
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BAL
ATH
BAL
ML
59%
95-67
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
ATS
52%
84-78
61%
95-60-1
50%
81-80
57%
90-68-1
TTL
54%
84-73-5
54%
81-70-5
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-6
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