PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
67-71 | Road
5
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
68-70 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | 13-5 | 3.59 | 1.07 | 155.1 | 161 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 5-12 | 5.44 | 1.47 | 129.0 | 132 |
13-5
W-L
5-12
3.59 Ldr
ERA
5.44
1.07 Ldr
WHIP
1.47
155.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
129.0
161 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
132
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
56%
CARDINALS
44%
▲ Edge: +2% (PIT)
PIRATES
54%
Book Odds: -119
CARDINALS
47%
Book Odds: +111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.7 (Under)
Over 8.0
45%
Under 8.0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
3.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+78.5% more
Pittsburgh: 1.9
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+39.0% more
Pittsburgh: 3.4
vs
St. Louis: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.2% more
Pittsburgh: 10.5
vs
St. Louis: 8.6
Hits (L5)
+10.3% more
Pittsburgh: 7.6
vs
St. Louis: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
5
STL Score
3.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.6
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 10.5
15.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 11.1
10.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.4
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +111 / -119
→
-119 / +111
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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