SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
72-65 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
82-54 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robbie Ray
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | 11-7 | 3.21 | 1.31 | 143.0 | 122 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 14-5 | 2.95 | 0.93 | 140.1 | 143 |
11-7
W-L
14-5
3.21
ERA
Ldr 2.95
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 0.93
143.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
140.1
122
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 143
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
62%
RAYS
38%
▲ Edge: +21.60% (SD)
PADRES
41%
Book Odds: +147
RAYS
61%
Book Odds: -158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 7.0
62%
Under 7.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Tampa Bay
3.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
SD @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 28, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 9
Apr 27, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 2
Apr 26, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.728
4
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+36.6% more
San Diego: 3.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+19.7%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
San Diego: 0.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.8
4
TB Score
3.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 7.2
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.4
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 10.9
13.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.7
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135
→
+147 / -158
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SD
TB
SD
ML
58%
95-68
51%
85-83
58%
95-68
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
97-66
54%
91-77
55%
90-73
55%
92-75
TTL
47%
73-81-9
51%
82-80-6
51%
78-75-10
54%
86-74-6
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