KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
62-76 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
69-68 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 6-7 | 4.61 | 1.38 | 150.1 | 116 |
| Parker Messick | 10-8 | 2.50 | 1.01 | 155.0 | 156 |
6-7
W-L
10-8
4.61
ERA
Ldr 2.50
1.38
WHIP
Ldr 1.01
150.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 155.0
116
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 156
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
44%
GUARDIANS
56%
▲ Edge: +7.10% (KC)
ROYALS
37%
Book Odds: +169
GUARDIANS
65%
Book Odds: -182
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 7.5
44%
Under 7.5
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.5%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
3.7
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Kansas City
2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Guardians
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.7
C
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718
▲
OPS
.696
170
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.7% more
Cleveland: 7.9
vs
Kansas City: 6.8
Walks (L5)
+12.3% more
Cleveland: 2.5
vs
Kansas City: 2.2
Home Runs (L5)
+61.3% more
Kansas City: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+36.8% more
Kansas City: 17.6
vs
Cleveland: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.0
1
CLE Score
3.7
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 10.9
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 6.8
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 17.6
23.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.2
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -157
→
+169 / -182
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54%
87-74
55%
89-72
49%
80-82
56%
90-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
90-64-7
43%
69-90-2
54%
83-70-7
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