SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
64-73 | Road
0
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
68-70 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Scherzer
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 11-7 | 3.36 | 1.02 | 155.1 | 162 |
| Max Scherzer | 1-7 | 7.02 | 1.54 | 50.0 | 36 |
11-7
W-L
1-7
3.36 Ldr
ERA
7.02
1.02 Ldr
WHIP
1.54
155.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
50.0
162 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
36
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
66%
BLUE JAYS
35%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (SEA)
MARINERS
56%
Book Odds: -129
BLUE JAYS
45%
Book Odds: +121
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 8.0
62%
Under 8.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.1%
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
Toronto
3.7
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mariners
Loss
66% Win Prob
A
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SEA @ TOR
0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026
SEA @ TOR
3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026
SEA @ TOR
1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.693
▲
OPS
.692
182
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16.5% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Walks (L5)
+12.3% more
Seattle: 4.0
vs
Toronto: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Seattle: 0.4
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+9.8% more
Seattle: 1.1
vs
Toronto: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.5
0
TOR Score
3.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 5.6
10.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 7.3
5.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 9.3
19.0 / 2.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
-129 / +121
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SEA
TOR
SEA
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-81
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
98-64
49%
79-81
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
80-76-5
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-85-5
53%
81-71-10
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…