COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
52-85 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
82-55 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Adams
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Adams | 0-0 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 4.0 | 5 |
| Tyler Mahle | 5-10 | 4.41 | 1.32 | 118.1 | 112 |
0-0
W-L
5-10
2.25 Ldr
ERA
4.41
1.50
WHIP
Ldr 1.32
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 118.1
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 112
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
61%
BRAVES
39%
▲ Edge: +29.40% (COL)
ROCKIES
32%
Book Odds: +217
BRAVES
70%
Book Odds: -235
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.4 (Under)
Over 8.5
38%
Under 8.5
62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
COL By 3-4 runs
17.0%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
4.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
2.9
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rockies
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
B
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
COL @ ATL
2 - 3
Aug 29, 2026
COL @ ATL
1 - 2
Aug 28, 2026
COL @ ATL
4 - 6
May 3, 2026
ATL @ COL
11 - 6
May 2, 2026
ATL @ COL
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.739
OPS
▲
.757
180
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+41.7% more
Colorado: 4.3
vs
Atlanta: 2.5
Batting Avg (Season)
+2.1%
Colorado: 25.4%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.4% more
Atlanta: 8.2
vs
Colorado: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
4.2
2
ATL Score
2.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.0
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 5.9
12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 11.9
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.3
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +184 / -226
→
+217 / -235
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
COL
ATL
COL
ML
46%
77-90
60%
97-64
54%
90-78
55%
88-73
ATS
57%
96-71
60%
97-64
52%
87-81
52%
83-78
TTL
53%
83-73-11
60%
93-62-6
49%
76-80-11
50%
77-78-6
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