MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
69-68 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
65-74 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | 3-6 | 3.59 | 1.37 | 105.1 | 86 |
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-6 | 3.72 | 1.35 | 84.2 | 80 |
3-6
W-L
2-6
3.59 Ldr
ERA
3.72
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.35
105.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
84.2
86 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
80
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
NATIONALS
60%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (WSH)
MARLINS
48%
Book Odds: +110
NATIONALS
54%
Book Odds: -118
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 9.5
49%
Under 9.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.1
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.727
OPS
▲
.744
168
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+38.7% more
Washington: 14.3
vs
Miami: 10.3
Home Runs (Season)
+25.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Hits (L5)
+24.5% more
Washington: 8.5
vs
Miami: 6.9
Home Runs (L5)
+22.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Miami: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.1
6
WSH Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.6
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.5 / 6.9
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.9
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 10.3
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.7
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -114
→
+110 / -118
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57%
92-69
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
56%
88-69-5
42%
65-90-6
53%
82-73-5
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