PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
76-60 | Road
4
LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
52-84 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Johnson
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 16-4 | 2.62 | 1.22 | 168.1 | 194 |
| Ryan Johnson | 3-7 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 67.1 | 50 |
16-4
W-L
3-7
2.62 Ldr
ERA
5.75
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.43
168.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
67.1
194 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
50
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
72%
ANGELS
28%
▲ Edge: +3.20% (PHI)
PHILLIES
69%
Book Odds: -223
ANGELS
33%
Book Odds: +206
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 8.5
47%
Under 8.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.3%
LAA By 1-2 runs
11.8%
LAA By 3-4 runs
6.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Los Angeles
2.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim
Angels
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
C
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
PHI @ LAA
5 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
PHI @ LAA
4 - 2
Aug 28, 2026
PHI @ LAA
5 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
LAA @ PHI
8 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
LAA @ PHI
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Los Angeles
LAA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.04
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.724
▲
OPS
.679
3
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+47.7% more
Philadelphia: 1.1
vs
Los Angeles: 0.6
Hits (L5)
+42.4% more
Philadelphia: 9.4
vs
Los Angeles: 5.4
Total Bases (L5)
+40.8% more
Philadelphia: 14.0
vs
Los Angeles: 8.3
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5
vs
Los Angeles: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.3
4
LAA Score
2.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.4 / 9.4
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 7.4
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
8.3 / 14.0
7.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.2
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118
→
-223 / +206
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
PHI
LAA
PHI
ML
59%
96-66
59%
97-67
55%
89-73
49%
80-84
ATS
60%
97-65
65%
107-57
51%
82-80
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-74-5
57%
88-67-9
52%
82-75-5
51%
78-76-9
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