BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
67-69 | Road
5
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
53-83 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz | 4-14 | 4.04 | 1.35 | 151.1 | 135 |
| Jack Perkins | 3-9 | 6.68 | 1.48 | 90.1 | 104 |
4-14
W-L
3-9
4.04 Ldr
ERA
6.68
1.35 Ldr
WHIP
1.48
151.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
90.1
135 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
104
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
75%
ATHLETICS
25%
▲ Edge: +16% (BAL)
ORIOLES
59%
Book Odds: -142
ATHLETICS
43%
Book Odds: +132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 10.0
60%
Under 10.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
19.5%
ATH By 1-2 runs
10.9%
ATH By 3-4 runs
5.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
7
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
4.1
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Orioles
Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
C
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.1
C
Sim
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Athletics
ATH
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.719
199
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+2.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Walks (L5)
+121.1% more
Athletics: 4.1
vs
Baltimore: 1.9
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
Athletics: 0.5
vs
Baltimore: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
7.0
5
ATH Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.0
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 8.2
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.8
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 13.2
11.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.1 / 1.9
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -146 / +121
→
-142 / +132
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
10
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BAL
ATH
BAL
ML
59%
95-67
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
ATS
52%
84-78
61%
95-60-1
50%
81-80
57%
90-68-1
TTL
54%
84-73-5
54%
81-70-5
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-6
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